To predict Ben Johns’ doubles win-loss percentage for the remainder of 2025 based on his 2024 performance and early 2025 results, we need to piece together available data, analyze trends, and make reasonable projections. As of March 9, 2025, we’re early in the pickleball season, and while comprehensive 2025 stats aren’t fully available yet, we can extrapolate from 2024 and what’s known so far. Let’s break this down step-by-step with a critical eye, acknowledging gaps and assumptions due to limited real-time data.
Step 1: 2024 Doubles Performance
Ben Johns primarily played men’s doubles with his brother Collin in 2024 on the PPA Tour. Sources indicate they were the top-ranked team, winning 7 gold medals across 20 tournaments, with a total of 9 podium finishes (7 golds, 2 silvers). Their historical dominance is well-documented, with a career total of 33 men’s doubles titles together by the end of 2024. For a granular look at 2024, DUPR’s analysis pegs their win rate at 81.71%—67 wins and 15 losses across PPA events. This dip from their peak years (e.g., 93.51% in 2023) reflects a shifting meta in pickleball toward power play, challenging their dinking-focused style.
However, without per-match data for every tournament, we’ll assume this 81.71% win rate is representative of their men’s doubles performance in 2024. This gives us a baseline: out of 82 total matches (67 + 15), they won 67—a strong but not untouchable record compared to prior years.
Step 2: Early 2025 Context and Partner Shift
In 2025, Ben Johns split from Collin after the PPA Masters (January 14-19, 2025) and partnered with Gabe Tardio, a 19-year-old Bolivian rising star, for most of the season. This shift is pivotal. Collin’s right-side consistency complemented Ben’s left-side dominance, but their synergy waned in 2024. Tardio brings a different dynamic—aggressive, right-side pressure, with a 2024 record of 7 men’s doubles medals (4 golds, 3 silvers). Ben has noted Tardio’s difficulty to play against, suggesting potential for a revitalized partnership.
The PPA Masters is the only confirmed 2025 event with Ben and Collin still paired. Previews suggest they reached at least the semifinals (seeded #1), but let’s assume they played 5 matches (typical for a deep run to the final) and won 4, losing in the final—a hypothetical 80% win rate (4-1). This is speculative since exact results post-January 19 aren’t detailed here, but it aligns with their 2024 form. For the rest of 2025, Ben’s performance hinges on his chemistry with Tardio, starting with events like the Desert Ridge Open (February 19-23).
Step 3: Factors Influencing 2025 Prediction
- Tardio’s Impact: Tardio’s power game could address Ben’s 2024 struggles against aggressive opponents. If Ben adapts (covering less court, per analyst critiques), their win rate might climb above 2024’s 81.71%. Tardio’s 2024 success (4 golds in fewer events) hints at upside potential.
- Competition: Rivals like JW Johnson/Gabe Tardio (pre-split), Hayden Patriquin/Federico Staksrud, and Dylan Frazier/Pablo Tellez are strong. The power meta favors these teams, but Ben’s skill and adaptability remain elite.
- Schedule: The PPA Tour has 25 stops in 2025. Assuming Ben plays men’s doubles in 20 (accounting for rest or mixed doubles focus), and each averages 4-5 matches (80-100 total), we need a per-match win probability.
- Adjustment Period: Early 2025 might see inconsistency as Ben and Tardio gel, potentially lowering the win rate initially before stabilizing.
Step 4: Estimating Remaining 2025 Win Percentage
- 2024 Baseline: 81.71% (67-15).
- Masters 2025 (Hypothetical): 80% (4-1).
- Post-Masters Projection: With Tardio, let’s adjust upward slightly. Ben’s talent plus Tardio’s aggression could push their win rate to 85%. This assumes they win 85 out of 100 hypothetical matches, factoring in a slight early dip (e.g., 80% in February-March) and improvement later (e.g., 87-88% by midseason).
- Remaining Matches: As of March 9, 2025, 2-3 events (8-15 matches) might be complete. Excluding the Masters, let’s estimate 10 matches played with Tardio at 80% (8-2). For the remaining 70-85 matches (20 events minus 2-3), an 85% win rate yields 60-72 wins and 10-13 losses.
Step 5: Calculation
- Total 2025 matches (assumed): 90 (5 Masters + 10 early + 75 remaining).
- Wins: 4 (Masters) + 8 (early) + 64 (remaining at 85% of 75) = 76.
- Losses: 1 + 2 + 11 = 14.
- Predicted percentage: 76 / 90 = 84.44%.
Final Prediction
Based on 2024’s 81.71%, a hypothetical Masters, and a Tardio boost, Ben Johns’ men’s doubles win percentage for the rest of 2025 (post-March 9) is likely around 84-85%. This assumes 85% with Tardio holds after an adjustment period. If they struggle to sync or the power meta overwhelms them, it could dip to 80-82%; if they dominate, it might hit 87-88%.
Caveats
- Data gaps: Exact 2025 match logs aren’t available yet.
- Assumptions: Masters outcome and match totals are educated guesses.
- Variables: Injuries, paddle bans (e.g., JOOLA Perseus issues), or rival upsets could sway this.
